Exit strategies and lessons learned: From Bosnia to Iraq
On 14 February 2012, the Stabilisation Unit hosted the second of its lessons seminar series with a presentation from Professor Caplan, Oxford University, on ‘Exit strategies and lessons learned: From Bosnia to Iraq’. Professor Caplan’s presentation asserted that although all interventions are conceived with termination in mind, however, exit strategies are rarely thought out at inception. Calplan proposed the need for a clear entrance strategy, as well as a good intermediate strategy in order to have a successful exit strategy. He also warned that ‘exit’ should be seen as a process of transition, rather than a moment – such as multi-party elections.
Professor Caplan explained that the timing of exit strategies is also crucial. He emphasised the fact that a premature exit would most probably leave behind weak institutions and increase the risk of a return to violence. On the other side, if military forces stayed in country too long then there is increased risk of stifling development and limiting the viability of the local government and local security actors.
Using wide ranging examples Professor Caplan also recognised that an exit is not just a technical matter, but also intrinsically influenced by politics, both internal and external. He also sighted examples of successful transitions such as Japan and Germany after World War Two also demonstrates that countries which had strong institutions before a conflict are much more likely to recover post conflict than states that did not have such strong institutions. Professor Caplan then went on to sight a number of impediments to successful exit, which included: limited understanding of local needs and sensibilities, failure to secure a political settlement, and lack of local buy-in, especially if there is a contested transfer of power.
Listen to the full podcast of the event here.
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